The Intel Report
How I'm playing their earnings
On Jan 4, prior to CES, I said this about Intel in my Substack post:
This is a chart that’s shooting out of a consolidation/digestion phase, ready to retest its prior highs. Upside can go to 45 and 50 this year; invalidated if we close below 34.
This played out beautifully, and the 50 🎯 was reached on Jan 15th. INTC reports Thursday, and the setup heading into the print is giving me some interesting signals worth watching.
Earnings: AH 1/22 | Implied Move: 7.45%
The Fundamental Picture
Consensus expects $0.08 EPS on $13.38B revenue
Earnings Whisper number sits at $0.12, a meaningful 50% beat implied
Company guidance: $0.08 EPS on $12.80B-$13.80B revenue
Sentiment is decidedly bullish: 75% of investors expect a beat
Interesting Flows
buy to open 3/20 41C 7000x, avg fill: $9.59 → $6.7M
sell to open 3/20 60C 34000x, avg fill: $2.26 → $7.8M
buy to open 9/18 52.5C 3000x, avg fill: $7.45 → $2.2M
sell to open 9/18 45P 2500x, avg fill: $7.15 → $1.8M
GEX
Intel is trading in positive gamma right now. The Put Support is at 42, which is also the 20D EMA. Call Resistance is at 50. A good print can propel this to 50-52.5.
Before we continue, I just want to announce that we’ve made $108,318 in gains and a 91.3% win rate since the start of this publication (assuming you only followed with one contract at at time). You can see my trades in the spreadsheet for transparency. For real-time updates, upgrade to a paid membership to join the discord. These are some examples of profits from my paid subs in the #profit-sharing channel:
